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Self-reproducing system of commodity production inputs commodities & labour output commodities equilibrium prices of outputs must enable their purchase as inputs in next period System (1): Simple reproduction, commodity inputs only:v ) }8 ) }8$=:The  Cambridge Controversies 240 qr wheat + 12 t iron + 18 pigs --> 450 qr wheat 90 qr wheat + 6 t iron + 12 pigs --> 21 t iron 120 qr wheat + 3 t iron + 30 pigs --> 60 pigs 450 qr wheat | 21 t iron | 60 pigs (sum of inputs=sum of outputs) Regardless of demand, prices must allow system to reproduce itself: 450 qr wheat must buy 240 qr wheat, 12 t iron, 18 pigs 21 t iron must buy 90 qr wheat, 6 t iron, 12 pigs 60 pigs must buy 120 qr wheat, 3 t iron, 30 pigs8 #$ /-0.>:The  Cambridge Controversies  ?:The  Cambridge Controversies System (2): Expanded reproduction surplus produced, must be split between capitalists and workers in equilibrium, a uniform rate of profit r, uniform wage w.bZ;Zb;@:The  Cambridge Controversies pr & w values determine split of surplus between capitalists, workers. To determine prices, must therefore know either r or w beforehand Distribution therefore not determined by  market Instead, different pattern of prices for every pattern of distribution: marginal productivity theory of income distribution incorrect in general equilibrium But what about validity of production function, isoquants, when marginal changes still relevant? HbFAb )A:The  Cambridge Controversies Neoclassical position (by Samuelson): Concedes Classical position more factual output produced by heterogeneous commodities and labour, aggregate capital an abstraction But neoclassical position still defensible as an abstraction Samuelson (for neoclassicals) argues isoquants just a parable we use to teach students reality is different technologies, each with fixed ratio of capital to labour increase in price of capital will lead to less capital intensive technology being chosen:&)Z=%&)Z=%_vPo  pZB:The  Cambridge Controversies C:The  Cambridge Controversies &As an aside, Samuelson ridicules classical theory s problems with labour theory of value, that capital-labour ratios must be the same in all industries. Problem: Samuelson assumes each technology can be represented by a straight line relationship between capital and labour Garegnani shows that straight line relationship only applies if capital to labour ratio is the same in all industries If K/L ratios differ, each technology will be represented by a curve, not a straight line Curves can cut each other in more than one place:6 i6PBAD:The  Cambridge Controversies E:The  Cambridge Controversies   Why a curved relationship? The definition of capital What is  capital ? Money? Machine? Both, obviously; but how to  add machines together? Money value only common feature but money value reflects expected profit  rate of return and  value of capital thus linked Sraffa s solution: reduce all machines to  dated labour Machine today produced with labour last year, plus machinery inputs last yearU]92U ] 92*    F:The  Cambridge Controversies  If economy has been in long run equilibrium for indefinite past then all goods produced earned normal rate of profit r therefore value of machine now equals value of previous year s inputs (labour and capital) multiplied by 1+r Do it again: replace last year s machine inputs with labour and capital used to produce those machines multiplied by (1+r)2 Get a whole series of terms for the labor input each year multiplied by 1+r, (1+r)2, (1+r)3 Machine/commodity component reducible to almost (but not quite) zero.<@]G5G@5'C5AH**  y G:The  Cambridge Controversies  hNext: the  standard commodity Earlier, Sraffa shows how to devise a  measure of value unaffected by the distribution of income: the  standard commodity When measured using this, there is a simple linear relationship between the real wage w, the rate of profit r, and the maximum possible rate of profit R:b**(   H:The  Cambridge Controversies  Each year s labor input to producing a machine today is thus broken down into the number of units of labor performed (say 1 unit) times the wage rate w (now expressed in terms of r & R) times 1+r raised to the power of n, for how many years ago the labor was applied:NZZNH0b   T     I:The  Cambridge Controversies  So rather than the rate of profit depending on the amount of capital (marginal product theory of income distribution), the amount of capital depends on the rate of profit Second problem: this relationship is very nonlinear First part falls uniformly as rate of profit rises Second part rises slowly as r rises rises rapidly as n (number of years ago rises) Two parts interact very unevenly For small change in r, second effect outweighs first as n rises For large change in r, first effect outweighs second for small n In between, can t pick whether increasing r will increase or decrease measured amount of capital:~Z?ZGZ!ZZw35?G! *   J:The  Cambridge Controversies  K:The  Cambridge Controversies  Can t apply marginal productivity theory to capital: return to capital can t reflect marginal product of capital measured amount of capital depends on rate of profit numerator/y-axis (r) and denominator/x-axis ( amount of capital ) are interdependent relationship is  messy rises as r rises for a while then falls as r rises Rate of profit therefore can t be  marginal productivity of capital 5<5m3E5<5m " E L:The  Cambridge Controversies 0Numerous other facets to Cambridge Controversies Minority of neoclassicals who got involved in debate (Samuelson, Solow, Hahn, etc.) had 2 eventual responses Grudgingly conceded critique had validity and started to develop alternative approaches to neoclassicism themselves (Samuelson, Solow) Abandoned attempt to make neoclassical economics relevant to real world and developed general equilibrium models as abstract thought experiments only (Hahn, etc.) Majority of neoclassicals assumed (wrongly) that debate won by neoclassicals and continued on as always.6*i*ib= (%bThe traditional view*Money  a veil over barter No impact on real transactions Common to some classicals (Smith, Ricardo, Mill) and neoclassicals Strongest proponent Say:,H c Micro versionLTheory of consumer demand Indifference curves show preferences between goods&33d Macro versionQuantity theory of moneye Macro version)Quantity theory explanation for inflation**f Rival approach: Endogenous moneyhOrigins in  Banking School , Tooke, Marx Modern-day: Keynes, Post Keynesians Money not neutral in short or long run Money supply  endogenous Critical of neoclassical micro & macrogEndogenous money: Micro.Neoclassical  budget line argues 100% of income spent Money allocated to saving seen as just another form of spending No utility from holding money itself Keynes s criticism: Money held for liquidity, given uncertain future  our desire to hold Money ... is a barometer of the degree of our distrust of our own calculations and conventions concerning the future [OREF II 18] So Money gives  utility , but highly unstable--shifts as expectations change Indifference curve analysis inappropriate for consumer behaviour under uncertainty`7eS7eS h Endogenous money: Micro6The  Money just a veil fallacy Neoclassical micro: Double prices & incomes, no change in welfare Real world: Double prices & incomes better off if in debt worse off if net lender Inflation can reduce real debt burden. An example: Borrower: Income $40K, Mortgage $120K, Interest rate 9%: repayments $12K: Disposable income $28K Double prices & incomes: Income $80K, repayments still $12K: Disposable income $68K . .3 .             3i Endogenous money: MicroBorrower 2.4 times disposable income from doubling income/prices Definitely better off: $6K increase in spending in  old prices Lender Inflation reduces value of assets Thus inflation has income distribution effects Workers normally borrowers Benefit from inflation Some rich ( rentiers ) normally lenders Lose from inflation x"/( x"/    ((zEndogenous money: Micro Economy not barter based but credit Major companies have  lines of credit Can borrow between zero and some maximum at will Used to buffer input price changes, wage payment/changes, new ventures, etc. Instant increase in loan means instant increase in credit money supply Direction of causation runs from price changes (including wages) to money supply reverse of Monetarist view (increase in money supply causes increase in prices) Basil Moore & other US  monetary Post Keynesians main proponents of this viewNKPOKPO  j Endogenous money: MacroQuantity Equation a truismk Endogenous money: Macro`Quantity Equation is flexible  works backwards &'Endogenous money: MacrobReserve Bank controls B; but Primary role  lender of last resort : guarantees depositors funds If bank gets into trouble, Reserve will: Relax (increase) m Expand B to suit  The need for an elastic currency to offset weekly, monthly and seasonal shocks, and avert the resulting chaotic interest rate fluctuations and financial crises, was & the major determining factor in the formation of the Federal Reserve System (Moore [2]: 540):k*k*mEndogenous money: Macro4Significance of endogenous money argument: Money matters: finance sector has significant effects on real output, employment, etc. Government policy severely constrained Cannot control money supply (or can t control easily) Interest rate affects not just propensity to invest, but ability to repay debt Mechanics of endogenous money first spelt out by Basil Moore Argues money supply in LM model is not vertical (Reserve Bank controlling quantity) but horizontal (Reserve sets short interest rate, credit system determines supply of money)v+~6O=+~6O=$%Endogenous money: the main mechanisms% Moore argues Primary short term role of banks is to provide firms with working capital Primary need for additional working capital is new wage demands or material costs Also role in investment  Debt seems to be the residual variable in financing decisions. Investment increases debt, and higher earnings tend to reduce debt. (Fama and French 1997)  The source of financing most correlated with investment is long-term debt& These correlations confirm the impression that debt plays a key role in accommodating year-by-year variation in investment. (Fama and French 1998) Credit expands & contracts w.r.t. needs of firmsN ~1 ~1p %%Endogenous money: the main mechanisms% Firms face new wage/material cost/investment demand Firms extend lines of credit with banks for working capital/investment finance shortfalls Increased loans lead to increased deposits by recipients of expenditure New deposits are created after the loans, but balance the new indebtedness Central bank need to underwrite liquidity ensures changes to base/money multiplier (itself no longer monitored) accommodate additional loans Causation thus works From P and T to M (with volatile  V ) From M to m and B^K8-8 &&Endogenous money: initial consequences' The money supply is determined by the demands of the commercial sector, not by the government It can therefore expand and contract regardless of government policy Credit money carries with it debt obligations (whereas fiat or commodity money does not), therefore debt dynamics are an important part of the monetary system Financial behaviour of commercial sector is thus a crucial part of the economic system. What does the data tell us about exogenous/endogenous debate? !!Data on Endogeneity vs Exogeneity*   M1 and monetary base would need to lead M2, M3, inflation and/or trade cycle for exogenous view of money supply to be corect Kydland & Prescott 1990 Statistical analysis of leads & lags in US Economy  There is no evidence that either the monetary base or M1 leads the cycle, although some economists still believe this monetary myth. Both the monetary base and M1 series are generally procyclical and, if anything, the monetary base lags the cycle slightly . US Flow of Funds data shows ratio between broader money and M1 appears procyclical and very unstable Debt to Money ratio has grown and cycled as Minsky predicted v33 ~v      >   *VKydland and Prescott s conclusions re money,,` % &"This finding that the real wage behaves in a reasonably strong procyclical manner is counter to a widely held belief in the literature." (13-14) Supports Moore on main role of working capital  The chart [4] shows that the bulk of the volatility in aggregate output is due to investment expenditures. (14) A Keynesian perspective, despite neoclassical leanings of authors "There is no evidence that either the monetary base or M1 leads the cycle, although some economists still believe this monetary myth. Both the monetary base and M1 series are generally procyclical, and, if anything, the monetary base lags the cycle slightly." (14) So M1 lags the cycle& Z/ZrZBZ ZZ`/`r`B` ` ` F@    [ +VKydland and Prescott s conclusions re money,,` % "The difference in the behaviour of M1 and M2 suggests that the difference of these aggregates (M2 minus M1) should be considered. This component mainly consists of interest-bearing time deposits, including certificates of deposit under $100,000. It is approximately one-half of annual GDP, whereas M1 is about one-sixth. The difference of M2-M1 leads the cycle by even more than M2 with the lead being about three quarters. From Table 4 it is also apparent that money velocities are procyclical and quite volatile." (17) M2 leads the cycle, while M1 lags it Then how can M1  cause M2, which is the presumption of exogenous money theory? Again, despite neoclassical leanings of authors, results and conclusions support non-neoclassical perspectives Z%ZPZoZB`e`)`3``%`Pbo`*   "-Ratios of US Key Monetary Variables 1959-2000... (USA Money Supply 1959-2001 =Same data, now in % terms: note growing role of credit money:> #VDebt: Secular trend and cycles a la Minsky& *$   xRole of Endogenous MoneyEndogenous money gives fundamentally different picture of economy to exogenous money Money crucial vs money neutral No  natural rate for output, employment vs natural rates set by real forces, independent of money & credit Government unable to control money supply, but government counter-cyclical policy vital vs  no government intervention is best exogenous money case Endogenous money integrates finance with macro, vs micro focus of EMH and macro/finance divorcePUf`Uf` Pb7j.,Endogenous money: consequences The money supply is determined by the demands of the commercial sector, not by the government It can therefore expand and contract regardless of government policy Credit money carries with it debt obligations (whereas fiat or commodity money does not), therefore debt dynamics are an important part of the monetary system Financial behaviour of commercial sector is thus a crucial part of the economic system. j ` f33` 3f3` ___>?" dd@3x?" dd@  " @ `"  n?" dd@   @@``@n?" dd@  @@``PT     @ ` `p>>0 %  "( H0l    Zf3f8c?`0  Zgֳgֳ1 ?`0 d T Click to edit Master title style! !Z  Hgֳgֳ ? `<$ 0  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     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